Overconfidence Effect - Related Biases

Related Biases

  • Overconfidence bias often serves to increase the effects of escalating commitment - causing decision makers to refuse to withdraw from a losing situation, or to continue to throw good money, effort, time and other resources after bad investments.
  • People often tend to ignore base rates or undervalue their effect. For example, if one is competing against individuals who are already winners of previous competitions, one's odds of winning should be adjusted downward considerably. People tend to fail to do so sufficiently.

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