The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which someone's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than their objective accuracy, especially when confidence is relatively high. For example, in some quizzes, people rate their answers as "99% certain" but are wrong 40% of the time. It has been proposed that a metacognitive trait mediates the accuracy of confidence judgments, but this trait's relationship to variations in cognitive ability and personality remains uncertain. Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities.
Read more about Overconfidence Effect: Demonstration, Overplacement, Practical Implications, Related Biases, Core Self-evaluations
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“Nothing could his enemies do but it rebounded to his infinite advantage,—that is, to the advantage of his cause.... No theatrical manager could have arranged things so wisely to give effect to his behavior and words. And who, think you, was the manager? Who placed the slave-woman and her child, whom he stooped to kiss for a symbol, between his prison and the gallows?”
—Henry David Thoreau (1817–1862)