IAU Circular
On 11 March 1998, using a three-month observation arc, a faulty IAU Circular and press information sheet were put out that incorrectly concluded, "that the asteroid was 'virtually certain' to pass within 80% of the distance to the Moon and stood a 'small...not entirely out of the question' possibility of hitting the Earth in 2028." But by 23 December 1997 it should have been clear that XF11 had no reasonable possibility of an Earth impact. Within hours of the announcement independent calculations by Paul Chodas, Don Yeomans, and Karri Muinonen had correctly calculated that the probability of Earth impact was essentially zero, and vastly less than the probability of impact from the as-yet-undiscovered asteroids. Chodas (1999) concurs with Marsden (1999) that there was about 1 chance in a hundred thousand that XF11 could have passed through a keyhole—that is, until the 1990 precovery observations eliminated such possibilities. During the October 2002 close approach, the asteroid was observed by the 70-meter Goldstone radar dish further refining the orbit.
Read more about this topic: (35396) 1997 XF11
Famous quotes containing the word circular:
“If one doubts whether Grecian valor and patriotism are not a fiction of the poets, he may go to Athens and see still upon the walls of the temple of Minerva the circular marks made by the shields taken from the enemy in the Persian war, which were suspended there. We have not far to seek for living and unquestionable evidence. The very dust takes shape and confirms some story which we had read.”
—Henry David Thoreau (1817–1862)