Methods To Eliminate Wishful Thinking
Reference class forecasting was developed by Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg to eliminate or reduce the effects of wishful thinking in decision making. Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize winner in economics, calls Flyvbjerg's counsel to use reference class forecasting to de-bias forecasts and avoid wishful thinking, "the single most important piece of advice regarding how to increase accuracy in forecasting.”
Read more about this topic: Wishful Thinking
Famous quotes containing the words methods, eliminate and/or thinking:
“We are lonesome animals. We spend all our life trying to be less lonesome. One of our ancient methods is to tell a story begging the listener to say—and to feel—”Yes, that’s the way it is, or at least that’s the way I feel it. You’re not as alone as you thought.””
—John Steinbeck (1902–1968)
“So long as we have failed to eliminate any of the causes of human despair, we do not have the right to try to eliminate those means by which man tries to cleanse himself of despair.”
—Antonin Artaud (1896–1948)
“All seemingly profound thinking which passes for realism, because it conveniently does away with all troublesome principles, has a great attraction for the adolescent mind.”
—Johan Huizinga (1872–1945)