Value of Earth - Replacement Methods

Replacement Methods

Returning to the calculation in terms of the replacement cost of Earth's biosystems: (Note: All the numbers in this section use the short scale, not the long scale.)

In Biosphere 2, over $240 million was spent on developing the infrastructure to support eight people for two years. The project failed and fresh air had to be pumped in to save the lives of the participants. So Earth is worth at least:

( $240 million / 8 people ) × 6.5 billion people on Earth = $195 quadrillion (that is, $1.95 × 1017).

This represents the minimum value of the Earth using today's technology. Because the project failed, the true value must be higher than this amount. However, economies of scale in biosphere production would obviously reduce this number significantly. Mass production of one billion biosphere units would reduce the per-unit cost by several orders of magnitude.

To put this into perspective, assuming the total value of the gross world product is $30 trillion, that sum divided into $1.95 × 1017 = 6500 times the world's current gross product.

From this we can estimate the cost of cutting a tree or taking a single fish from the ocean if there is evidence that that yielded resource unit may not be replaced. The probability that the resource will be replaced reduces the cost, so a 50% chance that it will be replaced implies that the cost should be cut in half, since two of them can be taken, on average, before one is not replaced.

These estimates can be done using a linear method, for initial estimates, or using an exponential model to place greater value on the remaining elements of a declining resource.

Further calculation of the value of one tree (replaced or not), a metric ton of fish, or of soil carbon depends on these probabilities. The curve for replaced and unreplaced biomass will be relatively equivalent as long as the total biomass is relatively large. As the total biomass in a specific area becomes depleted to the point where the entire sustainability of the biomass is threatened, then the exponential part of the curve comes into play.

Ultimately, we are left with the question, how much are we prepared to pay in order to avert imminent death as individuals. That sum is relatively large. As resources are depleted to the point where the conflict over what remains begins to dominate the risk of taking it, it becomes more obvious due to costs of protection and securing property.

So, any calculation based on costs of replacing ecosystems tends to lead to a calculation based on costs of protecting ecosystems so that their yield can be controlled - but only at the tail end of the process, when it is too late to replace them.

There are implications for costs of national security and climate change, both of which may have to be counted as full factors of production in such an analysis, if not full styles of capital - a factor which if not present in tight parameters prevents all gains from all investment in production.