Basic Urn Model
In this basic urn model in probability theory, the urn contains x white and y black balls, well-mixed together. One ball is drawn randomly from the urn and its color observed; it is then placed back in the urn (or not), and the selection process is repeated.
Possible questions that can be answered in this model are:
- Can I infer the proportion of white and black balls from n observations? With what degree of confidence?
- Knowing x and y, what is the probability of drawing a specific sequence (e.g. one white followed by one black)?
- If I only observe n white balls, how sure can I be that there are no black balls? (A variation on the first question)
Read more about this topic: Urn Problem
Famous quotes containing the words basic and/or model:
“What, then, is the basic difference between today’s computer and an intelligent being? It is that the computer can be made to see but not to perceive. What matters here is not that the computer is without consciousness but that thus far it is incapable of the spontaneous grasp of pattern—a capacity essential to perception and intelligence.”
—Rudolf Arnheim (b. 1904)
“The playing adult steps sideward into another reality; the playing child advances forward to new stages of mastery....Child’s play is the infantile form of the human ability to deal with experience by creating model situations and to master reality by experiment and planning.”
—Erik H. Erikson (20th century)