Meaning of "U"
If U = 1 Then the "Naive" (NF1) Method is as good as the current Forecast Method
If U < 1 Then the Forecasting Method is better than the NF1 Method
If U > 1 Then the NF1 Method is better than the Forecasting Method. There is no need to waste time applying further Forecasting methods.
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“The haiku lets meaning float; the aphorism pins it down.”
—Mason Cooley (b. 1927)