Talpiot Tomb - Statistical Analysis

Statistical Analysis

A central question has regarded the probability that a tomb might contain the specific group of names as the Talpiot Tomb. Experts such as Richard Bauckham, David Mavorah and Amos Kloner have asserted the commonness of archaeological inscriptions bearing the name "Jesus." Paul Maier, professor of ancient history at Western Michigan University, notes that there were at least 21 "Yeshuas" or Jesuses famous enough to be included in the histories of Josephus. For their part, the filmmakers present a statistical study conducted by Andrey Feuerverger, professor of statistics and mathematics at the University of Toronto, which concluded that while the names are not uncommon, the conservative odds that such names would be found together in any one tomb around are (depending on variables) from 600 to 1 to 1,000,000 to 1 in favor of it being authentic.

However, Dr. Feuerverger later said, "It is not in the purview of statistics to conclude whether or not this tombsite is that of the New Testament family. Any such conclusion much more rightfully belongs to the purview of biblical historical scholars who are in a much better position to assess the assumptions entering into the computations. The role of statistics here is primarily to attempt to assess the odds of an equally (or more) 'compelling' cluster of names arising purely by chance under certain random sampling assumptions and under certain historical assumptions. In this respect I now believe that I should not assert any conclusions connecting this tomb with any hypothetical one of the NT family." Dr. Feuerverger's assessment was based on several assumptions:

• that the Maria on one of the ossuaries is the mother of the Jesus found on another box
• that Mariamne is his wife
• that Joseph (inscribed as the nickname Jose) is his brother

Support for these assumptions comes, according to the documentary, from the following claims:

• Mariamne is the Greek form of Marya and, according to Francois Bovon, the name describes Mary Magdelene in the Acts of Philip, though this is speculation
• Mary Magdelene is believed to have spoken and preached in Greek
• Jose was the nickname used for Jesus' little brother
• The Talpiot Tomb is the only place where ossuaries have ever been found with the names Mariamne and Jose, even though the root forms of the name were very popular and thousands of ossuaries have been unearthed

Further information regarding the methodology of this study is due to be published soon.

On February 25, 2007, Andrey Feuerverger, professor of statistics and mathematics at the University of Toronto conducted a statistical calculation on the name cluster as part of The Lost Tomb of Jesus. He concluded that the odds are at least 600 to 1 that the combination of names appeared in the tomb by chance. The methodology of this study has been submitted to a journal, but in the meantime a summary can be found on the Discovery Channel and documentary websites. A more detailed explanation of the statistical approach can be found also on Feuerverger's website as well as in a recent interview given to Scientific American. The frequency distribution for names prevalent during the period of time during which ossuary burials took place was inferred by studying two key sources:

• Rahmani's Catalogue of Jewish Ossuaries in the Collections of the State of Israel
• Tal Ilan's Lexicon of Jewish Names in Late Antiquity

According to Prof. Feuerverger, the goal of the statistical analysis is to assess the probability level of a null hypothesis:

A 'null hypothesis' can be thought of here as asserting that this cluster of names arose purely by chance under random sampling from the onomasticon. The alternative hypothesis is the opposite of this, in some sense. It is not in the purview of statistics to conclude whether or not this tombsite is that of the New Testament family.

Feuerverger multiplied the instances that each name appeared during the tomb's time period with the instances of every other name. He initially found "Jesus Son of Joseph" appeared once out of 190 times, Mariamne appeared once out of 160 times and so on:

He next divided 2,432,000 by 4 to account for bias in the historical record and further divided that result (608,000) by 1,000 to attempt to account for the number of explored tombs from first century Jerusalem.

Feuerverger's conclusions have been called into question:

• According to some, multiplying the individual name probabilities is wrong because many permutations of the same names are possible.
• The inclusion of Mariamne in the calculation is based on two assumptions:
  • Mary Magdelene in New Testament (NT) was Jesus’ wife. (There is no historical evidence for this.)
  • Mary Magdelene’s real name was Mariamne. (This assumption is disputed by some experts.)

• The calculation adjusts only for the 1,000 tombs found in Jerusalem instead of the whole Jewish populace that lived in the area. This effectively assumes that Jesus family in NT did indeed have a family tomb and it was among the 1000 tombs found in Jerusalem area. There is no historical evidence for this assumption. Some experts, including archaeologist Amos Kloner (the one who excavated the tombs) do not accept that the poor family from Nazareth had a family tomb in Jerusalem.

• The inscription “Judah son of Jesus” is ignored in the calculation. Since there is no historical evidence that Jesus had any children, some people believe this inscription should be included in the calculation to reduce the probability that the tomb belongs to the Jesus family.

Randy Ingermanson and Jay Cost did their own statistical analysis in which they looked at the probabilities given various assumptions.

• What they called a 'typical historian', they calculate, would odds of about 1 in 19,000 that this is the real tomb of Jesus.
• A historian who wanted it to be the real tomb very badly would make assumptions that would change the odds to about 1 in 18.
• A historian leaning towards it being the real tomb but "staying within the bounds of historical reasonableness" would make assumptions that would make the odds about 1 in 1,100.
• Another historian leaning against it being the real tomb, but also working within the same bounds, would estimate odds of about 1 in five million.
• And of course a Christian who insisted that Jesus ascended to Heaven would say it is impossible for this to be his tomb.

Stephan Pfann (president of Jerusalem's University of the Holy Land) points out that the commonality of these names suggests that the probability is much lower. "Remarkably, a mere 16 of the 72 personal names account for 75% of the inscribed names." Among these "top 16" names are Mary, Joseph, Jesus, Matthew, and Judas.

Richard Bauckham (Professor of New Testament Studies and Bishop Wardlaw Professor at St Andrews) compiled the following data to show just how common the names on these ossuaries are:

"Out of a total number of 2625 males, these are the figures for the ten most popular male names among Palestinian Jews. The first figure is the total number of occurrences (from this number, with 2625 as the total for all names, you could calculate percentages), while the second is the number of occurrences specifically on ossuaries."

"For women, we have a total of 328 occurrences (women's names are much less often recorded than men's), and figures for the 4 most popular names are thus:"

Colin Aitken, a professor of forensic statistics at Edinburgh University, stated that the study is based on a number of assumptions, and that, "even if we accept the assumptions, 600 to one is certainly not the odds in favour of this tomb being Jesus," meaning that even if it were true that to find this cluster of names is very unlikely it does not follow that therefore this is probably the tomb of the family of Jesus. Peter Lampe, professor of New Testament Studies at the University of Heidelberg and working in archaeology, pointed out that in the 120s/130s C.E. in the port town of Maoza at the southern end of the Dead Sea one Jewish household comprised the following names: Jesus, Simon, Mariame, Jacobus and Judah (Papyri Babatha 17 from 128 C.E.; 25-26 and 34 from 131 C.E.). These people had nothing to do with the New Testament or the Talpiyot tomb. "According to the rationale of the filmmakers, these people should not have existed."