Probability Approach
In addition to graphical rainfall forecasts showing quantitative amounts, rainfall forecasts can be made describing the probabilities of certain rainfall amounts being met. This allows the forecaster to assign the degree of uncertainty to the forecast. This technique is considered to be informative, relative to climatology. This method has been used for years within National Weather Service forecasts, as a period's chance of rain equals the chance that 0.01 inches (0.25 mm) will fall in any particular spot. In this case, it is known as probability of precipitation. These probabilities can be derived from a deterministic forecast using computer post-processing.
Read more about this topic: Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Famous quotes containing the words probability and/or approach:
“Legends of prediction are common throughout the whole Household of Man. Gods speak, spirits speak, computers speak. Oracular ambiguity or statistical probability provides loopholes, and discrepancies are expunged by Faith.”
—Ursula K. Le Guin (b. 1929)
“The nearer people approach old age the closer they return to a semblance of childhood, until the time comes for them to depart this life, again like children, neither tired of living nor aware of death.”
—Desiderius Erasmus (c. 1466–1536)