Progressive Jackpot - Break-even Point

Break-even Point

In some games such as video poker, it is possible to compute an optimal playing strategy based on the frequency for each payoff versus the odds of hitting that payoff. Since the jackpot of a progressive video poker game is constantly growing, it eventually can reach a break-even point where the machine becomes a positive expectation bet for the player.

When the progressive jackpot is less than the break-even point, there is a negative expected value (house edge) for all players.

In the long run, with optimal strategy, a video poker player can make a profit, although the "long run" is generally longer than most people think. (Several tens of thousands of plays.)

It is worthwhile to note that a break-even point cannot be easily calculated on a slot machine game, because the payback percentage for the game is normally unknown to the player. The break-even point in video poker can be calculated because the payback percentage for the game is a function of the paybacks and odds of the poker hands, which is based on a standard 52 card deck. The return of a slot machine is based on the published paytable, but also on the normally unpublished reels. For a five reel slot machine, the player would need to know each symbol on each of the slot machine's five reels, in order to calculate the odds. For a three reel slot, the reels are normally weighted, and this would not be possible. However, in some circumstances the manufacturer may publish the payout of their machines.