Historical Voting Patterns
The newly elected pope often contrasts dramatically with his predecessor, a tendency expressed by the Italian saying "After a fat pope, a lean pope". Past cardinals have often voted for someone radically different from the pope who appointed them. The controversial one-time populist-turned-conservative, long-lived Pope Pius IX (1846–1878) was succeeded by the aristocratic and diplomatic Pope Leo XIII (1878–1903). He in turn was succeeded by the lower-class, bluntly outspoken Pope Pius X (1903–1914). Pius X's rugged ultra-conservatism contrasted with the low-key moderatism of Pope Benedict XV (1914–1922), which again contrasted with the former librarian and mountain climber Pope Pius XI (1922–1939), who led Roman Catholicism with an authoritarianism more akin to Pius X, who also shared his temper.
Pius XI was succeeded in 1939 by the aristocratic ultra-insider Curialist, Pius XI's Secretary of State, Pope Pius XII (1939–1958). Pius XII was seen as one of the great thinkers in the papacy in the 20th century. He was also the ultimate insider; his family were descended from the Roman aristocracy, with his brother working as a lawyer for the Holy See. Pius was succeeded by the lower-class, elderly, popular, informal Pope John XXIII (1958–1963). The contrast between diffident, intellectual and distant Pius XII and the humble—in his own words "ordinary"—"Good Pope John" was dramatic, with none more surprised at the election than Pope John himself, who had his own return rail ticket in his pocket when he was elected.
John proved to be a radical break with the two previous popes, and indeed with most of the popes of the 20th century. After a short but dramatic pontificate during which he convoked the Second Vatican Council which resulted in wide ranging changes in the church, the surprise John was replaced by the widely expected choice Giovanni Batista Montini, who many believed would have been elected in 1958, had he been a cardinal then. Like Pius XII, Montini (Pope Paul VI) (1963–1978) was a curialist. He had worked with Pacelli in the 1930s and 1940s in the curia. Yet Pope Paul VI was succeeded (albeit for a short time) by the non-curialist Pope John Paul I (1978), who gave the impression of being no insider, but "a simple, holy man". He in turn was succeeded by the first non-Italian since 1523, Pope John Paul II (1978–2005), who spoke many languages and was originally from the Eastern Bloc (an important consideration given Cold War politics and the Church's repression in the East). He was succeeded in 2005 by the German Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith and Dean of the College of Cardinals Joseph Ratzinger (Pope Benedict XVI).
Read more about this topic: Papal Conclave
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