Olduvai Theory - Timeline

Timeline

Perry Arnett postulates (2007) the following timeline:

• 1979: US per capita energy use peaked; still floundering on a plateau in 2006, but ready to fall precipitously ('cliff') at any time
• 2005: World crude oil probably peaked; still on an undulating plateau in 2007; starts off the 'cliff' ~2010-2012 or before
• 2005: World food production (grains) peaked
• 2008 (or sooner): World Natural Gas per capita peaks
• 2010 (or sooner): Natural Gas 'cliff' arrives
• 2012 (or sooner): US electricity blackouts and brownouts become the norm
• 2012: US potable, available water peak and 'cliff'; shortages and waterborne diseases increase
• 2015: US Health Care System in complete chaos, breakdown and failure; sanitation, drugs, return of communicable diseases, poorer nutrition etc.
• 2015: World “Dieoff” begins in earnest; largely starvation, disease and poor healthcare caused
• 2030: US per-capita energy consumption hits the “30% mark-AFTER peak”, equaling year 1930 lifestyles again (probably much sooner than 2030)

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, global food production will exceed population growth between today and 2030.