Market Trend - Investor Sentiment

Investor Sentiment

Investor sentiment is a contrarian stock market indicator.

By definition, the market balances buyers and sellers, so it's impossible to literally have 'more buyers than sellers' or vice versa, although that is a common expression. The market comprises investors and traders. The investors may own a stock for many years; traders put on a position for several weeks down to seconds.

Generally, the investors follow a buy-low, sell-high strategy. Traders attempt to "fade" the investors' actions (buy when they are selling, sell when they are buying). A surge in demand from investors lifts the traders' asks, while a surge in supply hits the traders' bids.

When a high proportion of investors express a bearish (negative) sentiment, some analysts consider it to be a strong signal that a market bottom may be near. The predictive capability of such a signal (see also market sentiment) is thought to be highest when investor sentiment reaches extreme values. Indicators that measure investor sentiment may include:

• Investor Intelligence Sentiment Index: If the Bull-Bear spread (% of Bulls - % of Bears) is close to a historic low, it may signal a bottom. Typically, the number of bears surveyed would exceed the number of bulls. However, if the number of bulls is at an extreme high and the number of bears is at an extreme low, historically, a market top may have occurred or is close to occurring. This contrarian measure is more reliable for its coincidental timing at market lows than tops.
• American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment indicator: Many feel that the majority of the decline has already occurred once this indicator gives a reading of minus 15% or below.
• Other sentiment indicators include the Nova-Ursa ratio, the Short Interest/Total Market Float, and the Put/Call ratio.