Hybrid Vehicle - Adoption Rate

Adoption Rate

While the adoption rate for hybrids in the U.S. is small today (2.2% of new car sales in 2011), this compares with a 17.1% share of new car sales in Japan in 2011, and it has to potential to be very large over time as more models are offered and incremental costs decline due to learning and scale benefits. However, forecasts vary widely. For instance, Bob Lutz, a long-time skeptic of hybrids, indicated he expects hybrids "will never comprise more than 10% of the U.S. auto market." Other sources also expect hybrid penetration rates in the U.S. will remain under 10% for many years.

More optimistic views include predictions that hybrids would dominate new car sales in the U.S. and elsewhere over the next 10 to 20 years. Another approach examines the penetration rates (or S-curves) of four analogs (historical and current) to hybrid and electrical vehicles in an attempt to gauge how quickly the vehicle stock could be hybridized and/or electrified in the United States. The analogs are (1) the electric motors in U.S. factories in the early 20th century, (2) diesel electric locomotives on U.S. railways in the 1920–1945 period, (3) a range of new automotive features/technologies introduced in the U.S. over the past fifty years, and 4) e-bike purchases in China over the past few years. These analogs collectively suggest it would take at least 30 years for hybrid and electric vehicles to capture 80% of the U.S. passenger vehicle stock.Shah, Saurin D. (2009). "2 Electrification of Transport and Oil Displacement". In Sandalow, David. Plug-In Electrical Vehicles: What Role for Washington. Brookings Institution. ISBN 978-0-8157-0305-1. http://books.google.com/books?id=i9XEgUchZzgC&lpg=PA22&ots=uTQUg766ET&dq=saurin%20shah%20and%20oil%20displacement&pg=PA22#v=onepage. Retrieved 2011-08-11.