Hurricane Hazel - Preparations

Preparations

On October 6, small craft warnings were issued for the Dutch islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao, despite predictions that Hazel would pass to the north. Among these early predictions was that the hurricane would strike Jamaica if it were to continue on its course, or if it turned northwestward, it could strike the Dominican Republic. These warnings were suspended a day later since it posed no threat to land, although Hazel's eventual course, toward the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico, was undetermined. On October 8, vessels were advised to take caution in the Windward Passage. Two days later, the intensifying storm was moving nearly due westward, which prompted a warning for Jamaican small craft to remain in port. Few preparations were made in Haiti, as a result of its poor communications infrastructure.

American planes observed the intensifying storm in the Atlantic Ocean since it was spotted, and warnings were issued for Florida's east coast when Hazel began to approach Jamaica. Once the hurricane had passed Haiti and was tracking north, it was expected to lose power as it passed over cooler waters north of Florida. Hazel was originally forecast to hit Savannah, Georgia. At 11 a.m. EDT on October 14, the National Weather Bureau issued a warning for the Carolinas, with the caveat that the hurricane was expected to stay offshore and largely spare any land. Instead, the storm took a northwest turn and headed toward land. By evening of the same day, the storm was forecast to make landfall near the Carolinas border, and evacuation warnings were issued along the coast. Further forecasts expected Hazel to lose its power and dissipate over the Allegheny Mountains.

In her book Hurricane Hazel, Betty Kennedy argues that in Canada, the impressions that Hazel was "the best-kept secret in town" and that it was a "fully documented meteorological event that should have taken nobody by surprise" both "paradoxically contain a great deal of truth". Meteorologists predicted that if Hazel merged with the cold front, the storm would not lose intensity, but would instead potentially strengthen. Two Special Weather Bulletins were issued by the Dominion Weather Office, but since it was expected that the storm would pass east of Toronto, few other warnings were given and there were no evacuations, which increased the eventual property damage and loss of life. The forecast called for high winds between 65 km/h (40 mph) and 80 km/h (50 mph), with only occasional showers. On lakes Erie and Ontario, ships received warnings of strong winds, and the predicted wind speeds ranged from 65 km/h (40 mph) to 120 km/h (75 mph). Toronto Hydro had called in standby crews as heavy winds were forecast, although they were almost sent home at one point due to a lull in the storm.

There had been significant rainfall in the Toronto area in the two weeks prior to Hazel, so the ground was already saturated. Few people in Canada had any experience with hurricanes, since it was unheard of for them to travel as far north and inland as Toronto. Kennedy also notes that if "Toronto had been about to face a blizzard, or was threatened by a 14-inch snowfall, that would have been something understandable. This was different. This was the unknown, the unfamiliar, the totally unexpected crisis. Hurricanes belonged in the tropics."