Herman Kahn - The Year 2000

The Year 2000

In 1967 Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener published The Year 2000, A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years with contributions from other staff members of the Hudson Institute and an introduction by Daniel Bell. Table XVIII contains a list called "One Hundred Technical Innovations Very Likely in the Last Third of the Twentieth Century." This list makes interesting reading today. The first ten predictions were:

1. Multiple applications of lasers.

2. Extreme high-strength structural materials.

3. New or improved superperformance fabrics.

4. New or improved materials for equipment and appliances.

5. New airborne vehicles (ground-effect vehicles, giant or supersonic jets, VTOL, STOL.)

6. Extensive commercial applications of shaped-charge explosives.

7. More reliable and longer-range weather forecasting.

8. Extensive and/or intensive expansion of tropical agriculture and forestry.

9. New sources of power for fixed installations.

10. New sources of power for ground transportation.

The remaining ninety predictions included:

26. Widespread use of nuclear reactors for power.

38. New techniques for cheap and reliable birth control.

41. Improved capability to change sex of children and/or adults.

57. Automated universal (real time) credit, audit and banking systems.

67. Commercial extraction of oil from shale.

74. Pervasive business use of computers.

81. Personal pagers (perhaps even pocket phones.)

84. Home computers to "run" households and communicate with the outside world.