Heart Failure - Prognosis

Prognosis

Prognosis in heart failure can be assessed in multiple ways including clinical prediction rules and cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Clinical prediction rules use a composite of clinical factors such as lab tests and blood pressure to estimate prognosis. Among several clinical prediction rules for prognosing acute heart failure, the 'EFFECT rule' slightly outperformed other rules in stratifying patients and identifying those at low risk of death during hospitalization or within 30 days. Easy methods for identifying low risk patients are:

• ADHERE Tree rule indicates that patients with blood urea nitrogen < 43 mg/dl and systolic blood pressure at least 115 mm Hg have less than 10% chance of inpatient death or complications.
• BWH rule indicates that patients with systolic blood pressure over 90 mm Hg, respiratory rate of 30 or less breaths per minute, serum sodium over 135 mmol/L, no new ST-T wave changes have less than 10% chance of inpatient death or complications.

A very important method for assessing prognosis in advanced heart failure patients is cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX testing). CPX testing is usually required prior to heart transplantation as an indicator of prognosis. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing involves measurement of exhaled oxygen and carbon dioxide during exercise. The peak oxygen consumption (VO2 max) is used as an indicator of prognosis. As a general rule, a VO2 max less than 12-14 cc/kg/min indicates a poor survival and suggests that the patient may be a candidate for a heart transplant. Patients with a VO2 max<10 cc/kg/min have clearly poorer prognosis. The most recent International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation (ISHLT) guidelines also suggest two other parameters that can be used for evaluation of prognosis in advanced heart failure, the heart failure survival score and the use of a criterion of VE/VCO2 slope > 35 from the CPX test. The heart failure survival score is a score calculated using a combination of clinical predictors and the VO2 max from the cardiopulmonary exercise test.