French Paradox - Time-lag Hypothesis

Time-lag Hypothesis

The time-lag hypothesis states that if there were a delay in serum cholesterol concentrations increasing and a subsequent increase in ischaemic heart disease mortality, then the rate of current disease mortality would relate to past levels of serum cholesterol and fat consumption much more than current levels. Law and Wald (1999) used Criqui and Ringel's (1994) study of alcohol and diet in explaining the French paradox. On analyzing past and recent data of serum cholesterol and fat consumption (when earlier data were entered and adjustment was made for under-certification of CHD), they found that France fits in with the trend of other countries with similar cholesterol and fat intake. Also, recent data prediction for CHD mortality rates showed that France was similar to other countries.