Calculating Fixed Odds
It is customary with fixed-odds gambling to know the odds at the time of the placement of the wager (the "live price"), although this category also includes wagers whose price is determined only when the race or game starts (the "starting prices"). It is ideal for a bookmaker to price/mark up a book such that the net outcome will always be in his favour, i.e. the sum of the probabilities quoted for all possible outcomes will be in excess of 100%. The excess over 100% (or overround) represents profit to the bookmaker in the event of a balanced/even book. In the more usual case of an imbalanced book, the bookmaker may have to pay out more winnings than what is staked, or he may earn more than mathematically expected. An imbalanced book may arise since there is no way for a bookmaker either to know the true probabilities for the outcome of competitions left to human effort or to predict the bets that will be attracted from others by fixed odds compiled on the basis of his own personal view and knowledge.
With the advent of Internet and bet exchange betting, the possibility of fixed-odds arbitrage actions and Dutch books against bookmakers and exchanges has expanded significantly. Betting exchanges in particular act like a stock exchange, allowing the odds to be set in the course of trading between individual bettors, usually leading to quoted odds that are reasonably close to the "true odds."
In making a bet where your expected value is positive, you are said to be getting "the best of it". For example, if you were to bet $1 at 10 to 1 odds (you could win $10) on the outcome of a coin flip, you would be getting "the best of it" and you should always make the bet (assuming you are rational and risk-neutral with linear utility curves and have no preferences implying loss aversion and the like). However if someone offered you odds of 10 to 1 that a card chosen at random from a regular 52 card deck would be the ace of spades, then you would be getting "the worst of it" because the chance is only 1 in 52 that the ace will be chosen. It is mathematically disadvantageous to make a bet where you are getting "the worst of it."
When making a bet where you must put more at stake than you stand to win, you are laying the odds or laying the bet. So, for example, if you bet $1000 that it will rain tomorrow, and if you win you will only win $200 but if you lose you will lose your entire $1000, then you are laying a bet. It is possible that you could be getting "the best of it" or "the worst of it" when you lay a bet; the fact that you are laying a bet does not necessarily mean you are getting "the worst of it". A lay bet is a bet that something won't happen, so if you lay $50 on a horse then you are betting the horse won't win.
Providers for fixed odd betting would include ChoiceOdds, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, and William Hill plc.
Read more about this topic: Fixed-odds Betting
Famous quotes containing the words calculating, fixed and/or odds:
“Because relationships are a primary source of self-esteem for girls and women, daughters need to know they will not lose our love if they speak up for what they want to tell us how they feel about things. . . . Teaching girls to make specific requests, rather than being indirect and agreeable, will help them avoid the pitfalls of having to be manipulative and calculating to get what they want.”
—Jeanne Elium (20th century)
“The aim of every artist is to arrest motion, which is life, by artificial means and hold it fixed so that a hundred years later, when a stranger looks at it, it moves again since it is life. Since man is mortal, the only immortality possible for him is to leave something behind him that is immortal since it will always move. This is the artist’s way of scribbling “Kilroy was here” on the wall of the final and irrevocable oblivion through which he must someday pass.”
—William Faulkner (1897–1962)
“The new always happens against the overwhelming odds of statistical laws and their probability, which for all practical, everyday purposes amounts to certainty; the new therefore always appears in the guise of a miracle.”
—Hannah Arendt (1906–1975)