The expected return (or expected gain) is the expected value of a random variable usually representing a gain, i.e. the weighted-average outcome in gambling, probability theory, economics or finance.
It is calculated by using the following formula:
- E(R) = Sum: probability (in scenario i) × the return (in scenario i) .
How do you calculate the average of a probability distribution? As denoted by the above formula, simply take the probability of each possible return outcome and multiply it by the return outcome itself. For example, if you knew a given investment had a 50% chance of earning a 10 return, a 25% chance of earning 20 and a 25% chance of earning -10, the expected return would be equal to 7.5:
- E(R) = 0.5 × 10 + 0.25 × 20 + 0.25 × (-10) = 7.5 .
Although this is what you expect the return to be, there is no guarantee that it will be the actual return.
Read more about Expected Return: Discrete Scenarios, Continuous Scenarios, Alternate Definition
Famous quotes containing the words expected and/or return:
“I was not at all worried about finding my doctor boring; I expected from him, thanks to an art of which the laws escaped me, that he pronounce concerning my health an indisputable oracle by consulting my entrails.”
—Marcel Proust (1871–1922)
“Live within your means, never be in debt, and by husbanding your money you can always lay it out well. But when you get in debt you become a slave. Therefore I say to you never involve yourself in debt, and become no man’s surety. If your friend is in distress, aid him if you have the means to spare. If he fails to be able to return it, it is only so much lost.”
—Andrew Jackson (1767–1845)