The expected return (or expected gain) is the expected value of a random variable usually representing a gain, i.e. the weighted-average outcome in gambling, probability theory, economics or finance.
It is calculated by using the following formula:
- E(R) = Sum: probability (in scenario i) × the return (in scenario i) .
How do you calculate the average of a probability distribution? As denoted by the above formula, simply take the probability of each possible return outcome and multiply it by the return outcome itself. For example, if you knew a given investment had a 50% chance of earning a 10 return, a 25% chance of earning 20 and a 25% chance of earning -10, the expected return would be equal to 7.5:
- E(R) = 0.5 × 10 + 0.25 × 20 + 0.25 × (-10) = 7.5 .
Although this is what you expect the return to be, there is no guarantee that it will be the actual return.
Read more about Expected Return: Discrete Scenarios, Continuous Scenarios, Alternate Definition
Famous quotes containing the words expected and/or return:
“I call it our collective inheritance of isolation. We inherit isolation in the bones of our lives. It is passed on to us as sure as the shape of our noses and the length of our legs. When we are young, we are taught to keep to ourselves for reasons we may not yet understand. As we grow up we become the “men who never cry” and the “women who never complain.” We become another generation of people expected not to bother others with our problems.”
—Paula C. Lowe (20th century)
“A pun does not commonly justify a blow in return. But if a blow were given for such cause, and death ensued, the jury would be judges both of the facts and of the pun, and might, if the latter were of an aggravated character, return a verdict of justifiable homicide.”
—Oliver Wendell Holmes, Sr. (1809–1894)