The expected return (or expected gain) is the expected value of a random variable usually representing a gain, i.e. the weighted-average outcome in gambling, probability theory, economics or finance.
It is calculated by using the following formula:
- E(R) = Sum: probability (in scenario i) × the return (in scenario i) .
How do you calculate the average of a probability distribution? As denoted by the above formula, simply take the probability of each possible return outcome and multiply it by the return outcome itself. For example, if you knew a given investment had a 50% chance of earning a 10 return, a 25% chance of earning 20 and a 25% chance of earning -10, the expected return would be equal to 7.5:
- E(R) = 0.5 × 10 + 0.25 × 20 + 0.25 × (-10) = 7.5 .
Although this is what you expect the return to be, there is no guarantee that it will be the actual return.
Read more about Expected Return: Discrete Scenarios, Continuous Scenarios, Alternate Definition
Famous quotes containing the words expected and/or return:
“When we see a natural style, we are astonished and delighted; for we expected to see an author, and we find a man.”
—Blaise Pascal (1623–1662)
“The return of the asymmetrical Saturday was one of those small events that were interior, local, almost civic and which, in tranquil lives and closed societies, create a sort of national bond and become the favorite theme of conversation, of jokes and of stories exaggerated with pleasure: it would have been a ready- made seed for a legendary cycle, had any of us leanings toward the epic.”
—Marcel Proust (1871–1922)