Outs
An unseen card that would improve a drawing hand to a likely winner is an out. Playing a drawing hand has a positive expectation if the probability of catching an out is greater than the pot odds offered by the pot.
The probability of catching an out with one card to come is:
The probability of catching at least one out with two cards to come is:
| Outs | One Card % | Two Card % | One Card Odds | Two Card Odds | Draw Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2% | 4% | 46 | 23 | Backdoor Straight or Flush (Requires two cards) |
| 2 | 4% | 8% | 22 | 12 | Pocket Pair to Set |
| 3 | 7% | 13% | 14 | 7 | One Overcard |
| 4 | 9% | 17% | 10 | 5 | Inside Straight / Two Pair to Full House |
| 5 | 11% | 20% | 8 | 4 | One Pair to Two Pair or Set |
| 6 | 13% | 24% | 6.7 | 3.2 | No Pair to Pair / Two Overcards |
| 7 | 15% | 28% | 5.6 | 2.6 | Set to Full House or Quads |
| 8 | 17% | 32% | 4.7 | 2.2 | Open Straight |
| 9 | 19% | 35% | 4.1 | 1.9 | Flush |
| 10 | 22% | 38% | 3.6 | 1.6 | Inside Straight & Two Overcards |
| 11 | 24% | 42% | 3.2 | 1.4 | Open Straight & One Overcard |
| 12 | 26% | 45% | 2.8 | 1.2 | Flush & Inside Straight / Flush & One Overcard |
| 13 | 28% | 48% | 2.5 | 1.1 | |
| 14 | 30% | 51% | 2.3 | 0.95 | |
| 15 | 33% | 54% | 2.1 | 0.85 | Flush & Open Straight / Flush & Two Overcards |
| 16 | 34% | 57% | 1.9 | 0.75 | |
| 17 | 37% | 60% | 1.7 | 0.66 |
A dead out is a card that would normally be considered an out for a particular drawing hand, but should be excluded when calculating the probability of catching an out. Outs can be dead for two reasons:
- A dead out may work to improve an opponent's hand to a superior hand. For example, if Ted has a spade flush draw and Alice has an outside straight draw, any spades that complete Alice's straight are dead outs because they would also give Ted a flush.
- A dead out may have already been seen. In some game variations such as stud poker, some of the cards held by each player are seen by all players.
Read more about this topic: Draw (poker)
Famous quotes containing the word outs:
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—Ernest Hemingway (1899–1961)