Demographics of Mexico - Demographic Dynamics

Demographic Dynamics

In 1900, the Mexican population was 13.6 million. During the period of economic prosperity that was dubbed by economists as the "Mexican Miracle", the Mexican government invested in efficient social programs that reduced infant mortality rate and increased life expectancy which jointly led to an intense demographic increase between 1930 and 1980. The population's annual growth rate has been reduced from a 3.5% peak, in 1965 to 0.99% in 2005. While Mexico is now transitioning to the third phase of demographic transition, close to 50% of the population in 2009 was 25 and younger. Fertility rates have also decreased from 5.7 children per woman in 1976 to 2.2 in 2006. The average annual population growth rate of the capital, the Federal District, was the first in the country at 0.2%. The state with the lowest population growth rate over the same period was Michoacán (-0.1%), whereas the states with the highest population growth rates were Quintana Roo (4.7%) and Baja California Sur (3.4%), both of which are two of the least populous states and the last to be admitted to the Union in the 1970s. The average annual net migration rate of the Federal District over the same period was negative and the lowest of all political divisions of Mexico, whereas the states with the highest net migration rate were Quintana Roo (2.7), Baja California (1.8) and Baja California Sur (1.6). While the national annual growth rate is still positive (1.0%), the national net migration rate is negative (-4.75/1000 inhabitants), given the intense flow of immigrants to the United States; an estimated 5.3 million undocumented Mexicans lived in the United States in 2004 and 18.2 million American citizens in the 2000 Census declared having Mexican ancestry. Mexico itself constitutes the second country of total number of immigrants to the United States from 1830 to 2000, after Germany.

The Mexican government projects that the Mexican population will grow to about 123 million by 2042 and then start declining slowly. Assumptions include fertility stabilizing at 1.85 children per woman and continued high net emigration (gently decreasing from 583,000 in 2005 to 393,000 in 2050).

The states and the Federal District that conform the Mexican federation are collectively called "federal entities". The five most populous federal entities in 2005 were the State of Mexico (14.4 million), the Federal District (8.7 million), Veracruz (7.1 million), Jalisco (6.7 million) and Puebla (5.4 million) which collectively contain 40.7% of the national population. Mexico City, being coextensive with the Federal District, is the most populous city in the country, whereas Greater Mexico City, that includes the adjacent municipalities that conform a metropolitan area, is estimated to be the second most popular in the world, by the UN Urbanization Report.

Intense population growth in the Northern states, especially in the US-Mexican border, changed the country's demographic profile in the second half of the 20th century since the 1967 US-Mexico maquiladora agreement through which all products manufactured in the border cities could be imported duty-free to the US. Since NAFTA, however, in which all products are allowed to be imported duty free regardless of their origin within Mexico, non-border maquiladora share of exports has increased while that of border cities has decreased, allowing for the growth of middle-size cities in different regions in Mexico. This has also led to decentralization and growth of other metropolitan areas that conform regional centers of economic growth, like Monterrey, Guadalajara, Puebla, San Luis Potosí, León and Torreón.

Sources: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (numbers of births, deaths, and fertility rates), U.S. Census Bureau International Programs (average population)