Delphi Vs. Prediction Markets
As can be seen from the Methodology Tree of Forecasting, Delphi has characteristics similar to prediction markets as both are structured approaches that aggregate diverse opinions from groups. Yet, there are differences that may be decisive for their relative applicability for different problems.
Some advantages of prediction markets derive from the possibility to provide incentives for participation.
- They can motivate people to participate over a long period of time and to reveal their true beliefs.
- They aggregate information automatically and instantly incorporate new information in the forecast.
- Participants do not have to be selected and recruited manually by a facilitator. They themselves decide whether to participate if they think their private information is not yet incorporated in the forecast.
Delphi seems to have these advantages over prediction markets:
- Potentially quicker forecasts if experts are readily available.
Read more about this topic: Delphi Method
Famous quotes containing the words delphi, prediction and/or markets:
“At Delphi I prayed
to Apollo
that he maintain in me
the flame of the poem
and I drank of the brackish
spring there....”
—Denise Levertov (b. 1923)
“Recent studies that have investigated maternal satisfaction have found this to be a better prediction of mother-child interaction than work status alone. More important for the overall quality of interaction with their children than simply whether the mother works or not, these studies suggest, is how satisfied the mother is with her role as worker or homemaker. Satisfied women are consistently more warm, involved, playful, stimulating and effective with their children than unsatisfied women.”
—Alison Clarke-Stewart (20th century)
“When the great markets by the sea shut fast
All that calm Sunday that goes on and on:
When even lovers find their peace at last,
And Earth is but a star, that once had shone.”
—James Elroy Flecker (1884–1919)