Stephen Hawking and Kip Thorne
Cygnus X-1 was the subject of a bet between physicists Stephen Hawking and Kip Thorne, in which Hawking bet against the existence of black holes in the region. Hawking later described this as an "insurance policy" of sorts. To quote from his book, A Brief History of Time,
| “ | This was a form of insurance policy for me. I have done a lot of work on black holes, and it would all be wasted if it turned out that black holes do not exist. But in that case, I would have the consolation of winning my bet, which would win me four years of the magazine Private Eye. If black holes do exist, Kip will get one year of Penthouse. When we made the bet in 1975, we were 80% certain that Cygnus X-1 was a black hole. By now, I would say that we are about 95% certain, but the bet has yet to be settled. | ” |
According to the updated 10th anniversary edition of A Brief History of Time, Hawking has conceded the bet ("to the outrage of Kip's liberated wife") due to subsequent observational data in favor of black holes. In his own book, Black Holes and Time Warps, Thorne reports that Hawking conceded the bet by breaking into Thorne's office while he was in Russia, finding the framed bet, and signing it.
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