Bluff (poker) - Bluffing Circumstances

Bluffing Circumstances

Bluffing may be more effective in some circumstances than others. Bluffs have a higher expectation when the probability of being called decreases. Several game circumstances may decrease the probability of being called (and increase the profitability of the bluff):

• Fewer opponents who must fold to the bluff.
• The bluff provides less favorable pot odds to opponents for a call.
• A scare card comes that increases the number of superior hands that the player may be perceived to have.
• The player's betting pattern in the hand has been consistent with the superior hand they are representing with the bluff.
• The opponent's betting pattern suggests the opponent may have a marginal hand that is vulnerable to a greater number of potential superior hands.
• The opponent's betting pattern suggests the opponent may have a drawing hand and the bluff provides unfavorable pot odds to the opponent for chasing the draw.
• Opponents are not irrationally committed to the pot (see sunk cost fallacy).
• Opponents are sufficiently skilled and paying sufficient attention.

The opponent's current state of mind should be taken into consideration when bluffing. Under certain circumstances external pressures or events can significantly impact an opponent's decision making skills.