Balancing (international Relations) - The Future of Balancing

The Future of Balancing

The notion of soft-balancing, although still relatively novice, not entirely convincing and accepted by all, is potentially shaping up to be the way in which states will engage in balancing in the future. Even though it is unlikely to bring any substantial changes to the balance of power within the international realm, it does show potential in constraining the major power and allowing secondary powers to have their input in international affairs and maintain their autonomy under the dominance of a unipolar leader.

However, this is not to say that traditional, hard balancing is a thing of the past. Indeed some powerful arguments are emerging both from the political and academic realms pointing to the rapid emergence of rising powers, namely China and India, as balancers and competitors of the U.S. in a bid for power, dominance and ultimately hegemony.

China is undoubtedly surfacing as the most credible power with a potential to balance the U.S. and over the next decade or two bring significant changes to the world’s balance of power grid. China has come through as a “formidable political, strategic and economic competitor” to the United States, increasingly challenging its regional and global leadership. Despite claims of peaceful rise mainly focused on economic prosperity, the world is becoming increasingly aware and anxious of China’s military expansion and modernisation, with its military budget rising 17.5 percent in 2008 and 18.5 percent in 2009 over the previous year. Seeing how China’s economic and military growth corresponds to the logic of internal balancing, it comes as no surprise that its claim of ‘peaceful growth’ is increasingly being suspected of implying a challenge to the current world order and balance of power. In addition, soft-balancing mechanisms can also be detected, as the growth in regional partnerships and agreements has offset a new regional integration with China at its centre where the U.S. is excluded from participation, the most significant example being the ASEAN–China Free Trade Area established since January 2010. The emergence of new major powers is certain to bring changes to the balance of power dynamics regardless of the level and intensity at which these powers choose to balance the unipolar leader. Even if China and other growing states refrain from balancing the U.S., the sheer size of their economy, capability and military strength will undoubtedly pose certain constrains on the U.S. freedom of strategic action, ability to influence, dominate and project power in the future.