4179 Toutatis - Orbit

Orbit

With a semimajor axis of 2.5294 AU, or roughly 2.5 times the separation of the Earth from the Sun, Toutatis has a 3:1 orbital resonance with Jupiter and a near-1:4 resonance with Earth. Thus it completes one orbit around the Sun for every 4.02 annual orbits of the Earth. The gravitational perturbations caused by frequent close approaches to the terrestrial planets lead to chaotic behaviour in the orbit of Toutatis, making precise long-term predictions of its location progressively inaccurate over time. Estimates in 1993 put the Lyapunov time horizon for predictability at around 50 years, after which the uncertainty region becomes larger with each close approach to a planet. Without the perturbations from the terrestrial planets the Lyapunov time would be close to 10,000 years. The initial observations which showed its chaotic behaviour were made by Wiśniewski.

The low inclination (0.47°) of the orbit allows frequent transits, where the inner planets Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars can appear to cross the Sun as seen from the perspective of the asteroid. Earth did this in January 2009 and July 2012, and will also do it in July 2016 and 2020.

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