2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season - Seasonal Forecasts

Seasonal Forecasts

Noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University issue forecasts of hurricane activity each year, separately from NOAA. Klotzbach's team, formerly led by Gray, determined the average number of storms per season between 1950 and 2000 to be 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms exceeding Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, of which five to seven reach hurricane strength and one to three become major hurricanes.

**Predictions of tropical activity in the 2007 season**
Source	Date	Named storms	Hurricanes	Major hurricanes
CSU	Average (1950–2000)	9.6	5.9	2.3
NOAA	Average (1950–2005)	11.0	6.2	2.7
Record high activity		28	15	8
Record low activity		4	2	0
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CSU	December 8, 2006	14	7	3
CSU	April 3, 2007	17	9	5
NOAA	May 22, 2007	13–17	7–10	3–5
CSU	May 31, 2007	17	9	5
UKMO	June 19, 2007	10*	N/A	N/A
CSU	August 3, 2007	15	8	4
NOAA	August 9, 2007	13–16	7–9	3–5
CSU	September 4, 2007	15	7	4
CSU	October 2, 2007	17	7	3
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Actual activity		15	6	2
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* July–November only: 12 storms observed in this period.