2005 Qeshm Earthquake - Future Threat

Future Threat

Iran was listed as "the worst offender" in a 2004 report on countries with poor earthquake engineering. Professor Roger Bilham of the University of Colorado at Boulder, a geophysicist who specializes in earthquake-related deformation and hazards, blames construction practices for deaths in Iranian earthquakes. Since the start of the 20th century, 1 in 3,000 Iranians has died in an earthquake-related incident. Bilham argues that "Most of Iran needs rebuilding. If the population of Iran had a choice between spending oil revenues on munitions or houses that won't kill them, I suspect they would choose a safe home. It's all a matter of earthquake education." The United Nations has prepared a Common Country Assessment for Iran, which likewise states that "While adequate building regulations exist for large cities, it is generally believed that they are not rigorously adhered to ... most of those who have suffered in recent major earthquakes have lived in small towns and villages. Earthquake-proof construction is very rare in those areas and adequate building regulations are not yet in place".

The earthquakes of Iran are of significant concern to the populace, and an impediment to economic development. Twelve earthquakes with a magnitude of over seven have occurred within the last century. Three-quarters of Iran's major cities are in areas prone to major earthquakes. The 1990 Manjil-Rudbar earthquake, with at least 42,000 fatalities, cost Iran roughly 7.2 percent of its Gross National Product (GNP) for that year, and wiped out two years of economic growth.

In 2007, the Asian Centre on Seismic Risk Reduction was formed in response to the regular earthquakes experienced by the southern, southwestern, and central Asian areas. This organization exists to "encourage regional and inter-regional networking and partnerships to reduce seismic damage". Earthquakes account for 73 percent of natural disaster deaths in the area.