2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season - Seasonal Forecasts

Seasonal Forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2005 season
Source Date Tropical
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
CSU Average (1950–2000) 9.6 5.9 2.3
NOAA Average 11 6 2
CSU December 3, 2004 11 6 3
CSU April 1, 2005 13 7 3
NOAA May 16, 2005 12–15 7–9 3–5
CSU May 31, 2005 15 8 4
NOAA August 2, 2005 18–21 9–11 5–7
CSU August 5, 2005 20 10 6
Actual activity 28 15 7

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane expert Dr. William M. Gray and his associates at Colorado State University (CSU), and separately by forecasters with the U.S. Government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Prior to and during the 2005 season, Dr. Gray issued four forecasts, each time increasing the predicted level of activity. The NOAA issued two forecasts, one shortly before the season and one two months into the season, drastically increasing the predicted level of activity in the second release. Nonetheless, all forecasts fell far short of the actual activity of the season.

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