Seasonal Forecasts
Source | Date | Tropical storms |
Hurricanes | Major hurricanes |
CSU | Average (1950–2000) | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.3 |
NOAA | Average | 11 | 6 | 2 |
CSU | December 3, 2004 | 11 | 6 | 3 |
CSU | April 1, 2005 | 13 | 7 | 3 |
NOAA | May 16, 2005 | 12–15 | 7–9 | 3–5 |
CSU | May 31, 2005 | 15 | 8 | 4 |
NOAA | August 2, 2005 | 18–21 | 9–11 | 5–7 |
CSU | August 5, 2005 | 20 | 10 | 6 |
Actual activity | 28 | 15 | 7 |
Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane expert Dr. William M. Gray and his associates at Colorado State University (CSU), and separately by forecasters with the U.S. Government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Prior to and during the 2005 season, Dr. Gray issued four forecasts, each time increasing the predicted level of activity. The NOAA issued two forecasts, one shortly before the season and one two months into the season, drastically increasing the predicted level of activity in the second release. Nonetheless, all forecasts fell far short of the actual activity of the season.
Read more about this topic: 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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