2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season - Forecasting Uncertainty

Forecasting Uncertainty

A number of storms that formed in 2005 exhibited unusual behavior and challenged forecasters' ability to make correct predictions. Hurricane Vince formed farther northeast in the Atlantic than any other tropical cyclone on record at the time—only 2009's Grace has formed farther north—and then unexpectedly reached hurricane strength over waters considered too cold to support a hurricane. Hurricane Wilma became the fastest-intensifying hurricane on record, and later strengthened unexpectedly in the face of strong wind shear. Tropical Storm Delta, Hurricane Epsilon and Tropical Storm Zeta all formed over the cold waters of the late-season eastern Atlantic, much like Hurricane Vince (though at lower latitudes). All three persisted in the face of heavy wind shear, and Epsilon managed to reach hurricane strength over waters well below the temperatures previously thought necessary for hurricane formation. Epsilon became the longest-lasting December hurricane while Zeta became the longest-lasting storm in January.