1994 Atlantic Hurricane Season - Seasonal Forecasts and Activity

Seasonal Forecasts and Activity

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts such as Dr. William M. Gray and his associates at Colorado State University. A normal season, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has six to fourteen named storms, with four to eight of those reaching hurricane strength, and one to three major hurricanes. The 1994 forecast predicted that a total of 10 storms would form, of which six of the storms would reach hurricane status. The forecast also projected that three of the hurricanes would reach major hurricane status.

In terms of tropical cyclone activity, the season was below average, with only seven named storms, three hurricanes, and no major hurricanes. It was one of only four Atlantic hurricane seasons without major hurricanes, the others being the 1968, 1972, and 1986 seasons, although records before 1944 are incomplete. No storms of hurricane intensity formed within the months of September and October for the first time since reliable records began in the 1940s. The season did not produce any major hurricanes, storms of Category 3 status, the first such occurrence since 1986. The low seasonal activity is attributed to the presence of El Niño, which is a global coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. The season officially began on June 1, and ended on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when the majority of tropical cyclones tend to form in the Atlantic Ocean.

The season's activity was reflected with a low cumulative accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) rating of 32. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h) or tropical storm strength.