1987 Atlantic Hurricane Season - Seasonal Forecasts and Activity

Seasonal Forecasts and Activity

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by hurricane expert Dr. William M. Gray and his associates at Colorado State University. An average season, as defined by NOAA, has 6 to 14 named storms, with 4 to 8 of those reaching hurricane strength, and with 3 hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. The June 2, 1987 report suggested that eight tropical storms would form during the 1987 season, five of them becoming hurricanes.

The forecast anticipated more tropical activity than what ultimately occurred. During the season, 14 tropical depressions formed from May 25 to November 5. Seven of the depressions strengthened into tropical storms, six of them named. Tropical Depression Two was upgraded into a tropical storm in post-season analysis, and as a result has no name. Tropical storms Arlene, Emily and Floyd all reached hurricane status during their durations, of which only Emily reached major hurricane status.

The United States was affected by four tropical cyclones in 1987, of which three struck Florida. The unnamed tropical storm struck Texas and affected much of the Gulf Coast of the United States.

The season's activity was reflected with a cumulative accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) rating of 34, which is classified as "below normal". ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h) or tropical storm strength. Subtropical cyclones are excluded from the total.