1938 New England Hurricane - Meteorological History

Meteorological History

The storm was first spotted south of the Cape Verde Islands on September 10. Over the next ten days, it steadily gathered strength and slowly tracked to the west-northwest. By September 20, while centered east of the Bahamas, the hurricane is estimated to have reached Category 5 intensity. In response to a deep trough over Appalachia, the hurricane veered northward, sparing the Bahamas, Florida, the Carolinas, and the Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a high pressure system was centered north of Bermuda, preventing the hurricane from making an eastward turn out to sea. Thus, the hurricane was effectively squeezed to the north between the two weather systems. This conclusion was not reached merely with the wisdom of hindsight. As described by Scott Mandia, professor of physical sciences, State University of New York, in an article on this hurricane, there was a lone voice in the wilderness of the New York meteorological offices crying out a warning of hurricane for Long Island. In Professor Mandia's words, "Charlie Pierce, a young research forecaster for the Bureau concluded that the storm would not continue to move northeast and curve out to sea but would instead track due north. He was overruled by more senior meteorologists and the official forecast was for cloudy skies and gusty conditions – but no hurricane (Francis, 1998). Because the official forecast was not cause for alarm, even as the winds picked up speed and the waves rolled in, nobody realized that a catastrophe was only a few hours away."

Late on September 20, this set-up caused the storm's forward speed to increase substantially. In fact, the forward speed of the hurricane would ultimately reach 70 mph, the highest forward velocity ever recorded in the annals of hurricanes. This extreme forward motion, being in the same general direction as the winds on the eastern side of the storm as it proceeded north, caused the perceived wind speed in areas east of the eye to be far higher than would be the case with a hurricane of more typical forward speed. (Winds rotate counter-clockwise around all low pressure systems in the Northern hemisphere, thus winds on the right side of a hurricane--"right" being relative to the direction of motion of the storm itself—are moving in the same general direction as the hurricane. Therefore, the forward motion increases the observed wind speed for points to the right of the eye of the hurricane and decreases the observed wind speed for points to the left of the eye, but in a complex way that defies crude addition or subtraction of the forward motion from the "intrinsic" wind speed of the hurricane.) During the early hours of September 21, the storm, centered several hundred miles to the southeast of Cape Hatteras, weakened slightly. By 8:30 am EDT, the hurricane was centered approximately 100 miles (160 km) due east of Cape Hatteras, and its forward speed had increased to well over 50 m.p.h. This rapid movement did not give the hurricane a sufficient amount of time to weaken over the cooler waters before it reached Long Island. During the 9:00 am EDT hour, the hurricane sped through the Virginia tidewater. Between 12:00 pm and 2:00 pm EDT, the New Jersey coastline and New York City caught the western edge of the hurricane. At the same time, weather conditions began to deteriorate rapidly on Long Island as well as along the southern New England coast. The full force of the hurricane started to reach Long Island after 2:30 pm EDT, and the eye made landfall at Bayport in Suffolk County shortly after 3:00 pm EDT. By 4:00 pm EDT, the eye had crossed Long Island Sound and was making a second landfall just east of New Haven, Connecticut.

Modern analyses reveal that the hurricane was at Category 3 intensity at both landfalls and place the maximum sustained winds in the 120–125 m.p.h. range. After crossing Long Island Sound, the hurricane sped inland. By 5:00 pm EDT, the eye moved into western Massachusetts, and by 6:00 pm EDT, the hurricane reached Vermont. Both Westfield, Massachusetts and Dorset, Vermont reported calm conditions and partial clearing during passage of the eye, which is a rather unusual occurrence for a New England hurricane. As the hurricane continued into northern Vermont, it began to lose tropical characteristics. Still carrying hurricane-force winds, the storm crossed into Quebec at approximately 10:00 pm EDT, while transitioning into a post-tropical low. The post-tropical remnants dissipated over northern Ontario a few days later.